Central Asians Edge Closer to Water Deal

At the October 10 meeting of heads of state of the Eurasian Economic Community, leaders of the Central Asian states reached agreement that Uzbekistan should increase its supply of natural gas to Kyrgyzstan, while Kazakstan will ensure the Kyrgyz receive regular deliveries of oil.

The arrangement will start operating in the first quarter of 2009, and is designed to reduce Kyrgyzstan's need to generate hydroelectricity.

This will allow it to store up more water in its reservoirs, which can then be let out over the spring and summer into the rivers which are crucial to Uzbek and Kazak agricultural irrigation schemes.

About 80 percent of Central Asia's water resources come from mountainous parts of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

The timing of their use of hydroelectricity has consistently placed them at odds with Kazakstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which need the water to be released later in the year.

Although the Tajiks and Kyrgyz also bear the costs of maintaining and regulating reservoirs and other water systems, the other states have not historically paid them for water, and charge them increasingly high commercial rates for oil and gas.

In mid-September, all Central Asian countries except Uzbekistan reached verbal accord on more mutually beneficial arrangements for water use, and negotiated the distribution of costs.

Lake Tcharvak is a reservoir in Tashkent Province, Uzbekistan just downstream from the confluence of the Pskem and Chatkal rivers in the Tian-Shan mountains. (Photo by zz77)

Local experts said the Bishkek meeting has improved the changes that Uzbekistan will soften its line.

Tashpulat Yoldashev, an Uzbek political analyst now in emigration, believes the other Central Asian leaders will force Uzbek President Islam Karimov to sign and implement water agreements. If he fails to do so, Uzbekistan could find itself in difficulties by autumn 2009.

"If he [Karimov] does not agree, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will start building up the water in their reservoirs over the summer, rather than releasing it to irrigate the fields downstream in Uzbekistan, and that will mean the entire harvest is lost," Yoldashev said.

The experts note that any shortage of irrigation water – either through drought or low water levels – has a major impact on the Uzbek economy because of the damage done to agriculture.

In 2007, for example, farmers from eight of the 13 administrative regions of Uzbekistan were banned from sowing rice because of a shortage of water for this thirsty crop. This resulted in a smaller rice harvest, an unannounced ban on rice exports this year, and measures to create an "untouchable" reserve of wheat.

Water shortages also affect cotton, a key export item for Uzbekistan.

One economist in Tashkent predicts that the situation is bound to get more difficult over the next few years as climate change leads to increased demand for water and Uzbekistan's population continues to grow.

Other commentators agree, saying that under these changing circumstances, Tashkent is going to have to compromise and accept proposals by other Central Asian states to pay its share for water.

According to Eduard Poletaev, editor-in-chief of the "Mir Yevrazii" political magazine in Kazakstan, "Uzbekistan will certainly behave emotionally and ambitiously towards its neighbors, but it is going to have to face the fact that the water only transits its territory, and the sources of that water are mainly outside its borders."

{This article originally appeared in News Briefing Central Asia, produced by the Institute for War and Peace Reporting}

Copyright Environment News Service (ENS) 2008. All rights reserved.