WASHINGTON, DC, October 9, 2007 (ENS) - Above-average temperatures are expected for most of the country this winter as well as a continuation of drier than average conditions across parts of the drought-stricken Southwest and Southeast, meteorologists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, said today.

NOAA announced the predictions at the 2007-2008 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference in Washington, DC.

"La Niña is here, with a weak-to-moderate event likely to persist through the winter," said Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations and acting deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

La Niña conditions occur when ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific become cooler than normal. These changes affect tropical rainfall patterns and atmospheric winds over the Pacific Ocean, which influence the patterns of rainfall and temperatures in many areas worldwide.

"The big concern this winter may be the persistence of drought across large parts of the already parched South," Halpert said. "And while December through February is likely to be another milder-than-average winter for much of the country, people should still expect some bouts of winter weather."

NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher said, "During the winter, usual La Niña impacts include drier and warmer-than-average conditions over the southern United States."

Across the southern and central United States, the June-August 2007 summer season ended with a long-lasting heatwave that set more than 2,000 new daily high temperature records, according to scientists at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina.

The much warmer-than-average conditions in the Southeast and throughout the West contributed to above average residential energy demand for the nation - about eight percent higher than what would have occurred under average climate conditions for the season, NOAA said.

For the 2007-2008 U.S. winter, from December through February, NOAA seasonal forecasters predict:

• In the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic,temperatures are expected to be above average in response to the long-term warming trend. Snowfall for the region will depend on other climate factors, which are difficult to anticipate more than one-to-two weeks in advance.


• The drought-plagued Southeast is likely to remain drier-than-average due to La Niña, while temperatures are expected to be above average.


• In the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley, temperatures and precipitation should be above average.


• The south-central Plains should see drier-than-average conditions and warmer-than-average temperatures. Above-average temperatures are also expected in the central Plains. The northern Plains has equal chances of above-, near-, or below-average temperature and precipitation.


• In the Northwest, there are equal chances for above-, near-, or below-average temperatures. Precipitation should be above average in much of the region due to La Niña.


• Drought conditions are expected to persist in the Southwest due to La Niña, and temperatures are likely to be above average.


• Northern Alaska is expect to be milder–than-average, while the rest of Alaska has equal chances of above-, near-, or below-average temperatures and precipitation.


• In Hawaii, temperatures and precipitation are expected to be above average.

The U.S. winter outlook is produced by a team of scientists at the Climate Prediction Center in association with NOAA funded partners.

Scientists base this forecast on long-term climate trends and a variety of forecast tools from statistical techniques to complex dynamical ocean-atmosphere coupled models and composites. This outlook will be updated on October 18 and again on November 15.

Copyright Environment News Service (ENS) 2007. All rights reserved.