Global Appetite for Seafood Will Not Be Easy to Satisfy

WASHINGTON, DC, October 2, 2003 (ENS) - There is increasing evidence that most of the world's wild fisheries are near - or beyond - their maximum sustainable exploitation levels, but the world is in no way losing its appetite for fish. The global demand for fish, which has doubled over the past 30 years, will increase by some 29 million metric tons by 2020, according to a report released today, and meeting this demand will not be easy.

It notes that increasing aquaculture is the most viable solution to bridge the gap between supply and demand, but cautions that this could force tradeoffs between the health of wild fisheries and the environment, and the well being of the poor.

The report - "Outlook for Fish to 2020: Meeting Global Demand" - was compiled by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the WorldFish Center.

It finds that developing countries will shape nearly all growth in the fish industry in the next two decades, as these countries will be responsible for 77 percent of global fish consumption and 79 percent of world production.

The study projects that fish consumption in developing countries will increase by 57 percent - from 62.7 million metric tons in 1997 to 98.6 million metric tons in 2020. By comparison, fish consumption in developed countries will increase by only about four percent, from 28.1 million metric tons in 1997 to 29.2 million metric tons in 2020.

Rising populations and increasing affluence in the developing world are helping drive the increased demand for fish. (Photo by I. de Borhegyi courtesy UN Food and Agriculture Organization)

The majority of wild fisheries are already tapped to capacity and the global catch of wild fish has been flat since the mid 1980s, the researchers say.

It follows that meeting the demand for fish and seafood products will largely rest on aquaculture, the report details, and it projects that more than 40 percent of fish consumed in 2002 will come from fish farms.

Aquaculture currently accounts for some 30 percent of total fish production.

The study finds that aquaculture production is expected to nearly double in the next two decades, climbing from 28.6 million metric tons in 1997 to 53.6 million metric tons in 2020.

How policymakers choose to encourage and regulate this growth could have far reaching consequences, the researchers say.

The report notes that substantial increases in fish farming could actually damage already vulnerable wild fisheries and recommends that growth plans for this sector consider these potential effects.

"The fate of aquaculture and the world's wild fisheries are linked through markets and even more directly," said Joachim von Braun, director general of IFPRI, a nonprofit group that identifies and analyzes sustainable food production policies for the developing world.

On the positive side, von Braun says, increased fish farm production reduces pressure on fish prices and may decrease pressure on wild stocks.

But on the other hand, "fish farming often uses wild fish products such as fishmeal and small fish as feed, and this is already stressing wild fisheries," said Von Braun. "Often, fish farming and wild fisheries compete for the use of coastal space."

Expanding aquaculture could increase pollution and the use of scarce water and land resources, threatening the environment and the poor in developing countries, according to the report.

Fish farming could be the answer to the world's growing demand for fish, but environmental concerns remain. (Photo by R. Faidutti courtesy UN Food and Agriculture Organization)

Governments can avoid a trade off if they develop aquaculture policies that are "environmentally sustainable and foster technologies that poor fish farmers can afford," Williams said.

One example, Williams added, is for policymakers to provide small scale fish farmers with technical assistance so they can comply with food safety and ecological regulations.

Bridging the gap between demand and supply for fish - without devastating the remaining wild fish, harming coastal environments and burdening the global poor - will not be easy, acknowledged the lead author of the report, Chris Delgado.

The situation is far from hopeless, Delgado said, but it will require difficult choices by local and global policymakers.

"With appropriate actions taken and investments made now, we can ensure that we will be able to meet growing global demand for fish over the next two decades," he said. "If policymakers focus on improving stewardship of marine and coastal resources, and developing technologies to reduce waste and environmental damage in wild fisheries, we will not only meet demand, but we will do so in a way that is fair to the poor and environmentally sustainable."

The report can be found at IFPRI's website.