Bush Climate Change Initiative Unclear, Congressional Auditor Testifies

WASHINGTON, DC, October 2, 2003 (ENS) - It is "unclear" what effect the Bush administration's climate initiative will have on the generation of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, according to a report issued Wednesday by the General Accounting Office (GAO), the investigative arm of Congress.

The report by John Stephenson, director of the GAO natural resources and environment division was presented Wednesday to the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation.

On February 14, 2002, President George W. Bush announced his Global Climate Change Initiative. It included, among other things, a goal concerning U.S. carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, which are widely believed to affect the Earth’s climate, said Stephenson.

President George W. Bush announces his Global Climate Change Initiative (Photo courtesy The White House)

In the United States, this ratio has generally decreased for 50 years or more. "Under the initiative, emissions would increase, but less than otherwise expected," Stephenson told the committee.

The GAO was asked to testify on whether the administration’s publicly available documents explain the basis for the initiative’s general and specific goals, to identify elements to help reduce emissions and contribute to the 18 percent reduction goal, as well as their specific contributions, and to discuss plans to track progress in meeting the goal.

The Bush administration stated that the climate initiative’s general goal is to slow the growth of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, but "it did not provide a basis for its specific goal of reducing emissions intensity 18 percent by 2012," Stephenson told the committee.

Any reduction in emissions above the 14 percent reduction already anticipated would contribute to this general goal. However, "GAO did not find a specific basis or rationale for the Administration’s decision to establish a four percentage point reduction goal beyond the already expected reductions," said Stephenson.

The administration identified 30 elements that it expected would reduce U.S. emissions and contribute to meeting its 18 percent reduction goal by 2012.

The 30 elements include a range of policy tools - such as regulations, research and development, tax incentives, and other activities - that cover four broad areas:

1. improving renewable energy and certain industrial power systems
   
2. improving fuel economy
   
3. promoting domestic carbon sequestration such as the absorption of carbon dioxide by trees to offset emissions
   
4. challenging business to reduce emissions

The GAO found that the administration provided estimates of the reductions associated with 11 of the 30 elements, but not with the remaining 19 elements.

Of these 11 estimates, the GAO found that three estimates represented future emissions reductions related to activities that occurred after the initiative was announced.

The other eight estimates represented past or current emissions reductions or related to activities that were already underway before the Initiative was announced, Stephenson reported.

• In five cases, an estimate is provided for current or recent reductions, but no information is provided about the expected additional savings to be achieved by 2012, the end of the initiative.
  
• In two cases, the elements are expected to yield savings over many years, but it is not clear what emissions reductions will be achieved by 2012.
  
• In one case, savings are counted for an activity that began prior to the announcement of the initiative.

"It is, therefore, unclear to what extent the 30 elements will contribute to the goal of reducing emissions and, thus, lowering emissions intensity by 2012," the GAO official said.

The administration plans to determine, in 2012, whether the 18 percent reduction goal was met. Unless the administration conducts one or more interim assessments, Stephenson said, it will not be in a position to determine, until a decade after announcing the initiative, whether its efforts are having the intended effect or whether additional efforts may be warranted.

The GAO expects to issue a final report on this work later this year.

The Global Climate Change Initiative advanced by President Bush is online at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/02/climatechange.asp