Rapid Arctic Warming Brings Sea Level Rise, Extinctions

REYKJAVIK, Iceland, November 8, 2004 (ENS) - The Arctic is warming quickly, at nearly twice the rate as the rest of the planet, an international team of 300 scientists has determined. Increasing greenhouse gases from human activities are projected to make it even warmer, according to the four year scientific study of the region, the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.

At least half the summer sea ice in the Arctic is projected to melt by the end of this century, along with a portion of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as the region is projected to warm an additional 4 to 7 degrees Celsius (7 to 13 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.

Much larger changes are projected that will have major impacts worldwide - global sea levels will rise and global warming will intensify, warns the final report of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA).

A researcher observes the edge of the Greenland Ice Sheet in 2001. (Photo courtesy Ted Scambos, National Snow and Ice Data Center)

In Alaska, Western Canada, and Eastern Russia, average winter temperatures have increased as much as 3 to 4 degrees C (4 to 7 degrees F) in the past 50 years, the scientists say.

Over the long term, Greenland contains enough melt water to eventually raise sea level by about seven meters (about 23 feet), the assessment projects. Many coastal towns and facilities around the Arctic face increasing risks from erosion and flooding due to rising sea levels, decreased sea ice, and thawing coastal permafrost.

Globally, more than 17 million people live less than one meter (39 inches)above sea level in Bangladesh, while places like Bangkok, Calcutta, Dhaka and Manila, and Florida, Louisiana and New Jersey in the United States, are also at risk from rising sea levels.

Over the next 100 years, climate change is expected to accelerate, contributing to major physical, ecological, social, and economic changes, and the Assessment has documented that many of these changes have already begun.

“The impacts of global warming are affecting people now in the Arctic,” says Robert Corell, chair of the ACIA. “The Arctic is experiencing some of the most rapid and severe climate change on Earth. The impacts of climate change on the region and the globe are projected to increase substantially in the years to come.”

Arctic summer sea ice is projected to decline by at least 50 percent by the end of this century, and some climate models show nearly complete disappearance of summer sea ice.

This is very likely to have devastating consequences for some Arctic animal species such as ice-living seals and for local people for whom these animals are a primary food source. At the same time, reduced sea ice extent is likely to increase marine access to some of the region’s resources.

If the Arctic Ocean becomes ice-free in summer, it is likely that polar bears and some seal species would be driven toward extinction, the scientists said.

Polar bears on the beach near Kaktovik, just north of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge on the Coastal Plain (Photo courtesy U.S. Fish and Wildlife)

"If we limit our emissions of heat- trapping carbon dioxide now by increasing energy efficiency and using clean energy technologies like wind and solar power, we can still help protect the Arctic and slow global warming," she said.

Forest fires, insect infestations, and other disturbances are projected to increase in frquency and intensity in a warming climate, the ACIA report said, and climate change will cause vegetation shifts.

These changes in vegetation, along with rising sea levels, are projected to shrink the tundra area to its lowest extent in "at least the past 21,000 years," the assessment found. The breeding area for birds and grazing area for animals will be so much smaller that threatened species will become extinct and even species that are numerous today will "decline sharply," the scientists project.

The assessment was commissioned by the Arctic Council - a ministerial intergovernmental forum comprised of the eight Arctic countries and six Indigenous Peoples organizations - and the International Arctic Science Committee - an international scientific organization appointed by 18 national academies of science.

The assessment’s findings and projections were released today and will be presented in detail at a four day scientific symposium in Reykjavik that opens Tuesday, the ACIA International Scientific Symposium.

The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment was formally initiated in 2000 at the Ministerial Meeting of the Arctic Council at Point Barrow, Alaska as a joint project implemented by the Arctic Council’s Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) and Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF) Working Groups, and the International Arctic Science Committee.

As specified in the Barrow Declaration, the goal of the assessment is to “evaluate and synthesize knowledge on climate variability and change and increased ultraviolet radiation, and support policymaking processes and the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.”

The Arctic Council, made up of Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Russian Federation, Sweden, and the United States, directed ACIA to address “environmental, human health, social, cultural, and economic impacts and consequences, including policy recommendations.”

The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Secretariat is located at the International Arctic Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. Funding for the Secretariat is provided by the U.S. National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) says the report comes at a time of increasing pressure on the administration of President George W. Bush to enact U.S. emissions reductions. During election week, the Queen of England privately pressured UK Prime Minister Tony Blair to press the U.S. on global warming policy, and she opened a climate change summit of senior government officials from the UK and Germany to discuss the problem, the NRDC says.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the Kyoto Protocol last, bringing the accord into effect worldwide 90 days after the United Nations is notified of the ratification

"President Bush needs to change his approach to global warming in light of the damage already being seen in the Arctic," said Dr. Daniel Lashof, science cirector of the NRDC Climate Center.

"It is now clear we have to cut the pollution that causes global warming to prevent dangerous changes in the climate. The purely voluntary approach taken in the President's first term will leave the nation and the world in great danger from the threat of global warming."