Super-Active 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted

Philip Klotzbach and William Gray with the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University say they have increased their seasonal forecast from their initial early December prediction. "We anticipate an above-average probability of United States major hurricane landfall," they now say.

The hurricane season officially opens on June 1 of each year and ends in November.

The team estimates that Florida is at elevated risk for at least one major hurricane landfall on the state's east coast and also on its Gulf coast this season.

The U.S. East Coast, including peninsular Florida, is at a 45 percent risk this season, while the average for the last century is 31 percent, Klotzbach and Gray estimate.

The Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville is at a 44 percent risk this year, while the average for the last century on the Gulf Coast is 30 percent.

The probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the United States is estimated to be about 135 percent of the long-period average.

High rise buildings damaged in Hurricane Ivan also show the effects of Hurricane Dennis. Pensacola Beach, Florida, July 19, 2005 (Photo by Leif Skoogfors courtesy FEMA)

Klotzbach and Gray estimate that 2008 will have about eight hurricanes, while the ong-period average is 5.9.

This season will have 15 named storms, the forecasters say, although the average is 9.6.

Overall, they say, there will be 40 hurricane days, although the average number is only 24.5. They forecast four intense hurricanes, in categories 3, 4, or 5, while the average is 2.3 hurricanes.

Finally, there will be nine intense hurricane days, while the average is only five, say Klotzbach and Gray.

To glimpse the inner workings of America's chief hurricane center, visitors can now get an online virtual tour of NOAA's National Hurricane Center.

With the click of a computer mouse, the online link provides panoramic views of the different rooms in the facility, each accompanied by an audio description.

People can move around each room in a circle, stop, back up, and zoom in. A text window is available for the hearing-impaired.

"This is an especially useful tool for students who are learning about tropical cyclones and weather forecasting," said Bill Read, director of the National Hurricane Center. "It also shows how the different branches of our facility work together for the best possible forecasts."

Rooms included in the virtual tour are the National Hurricane Center operations, the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch operations, the Chief Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination All Hurricanes, the Federal Emergency Management Agency liaison, media and seminar room, the NOAA Miami Regional Library, and the NOAA National Weather Service Miami Forecast Office.

Hurricane preparedness week during 2008 will be held May 25 through May 31.

The goal of NOAA's Hurricane Preparedness website is to inform the public about hurricane hazards and provide knowledge which can be used to take Action. This information can be used to save lives at work, home, while on the road, or on the water.

Hurricane hazards come in many forms, says NOAA - storm surge, high winds, tornadoes, and flooding. The agency urges families to create an emergency plan that includes all of these hazards.

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