NOAA Warns of Active Atlantic Hurricane Season

HOUSTON, Texas, May 20, 2004 (ENS) - As many as four major hurricanes and 15 tropical storms could rise out of the Atlantic Ocean in 2004 to threaten the United States, the Caribbean and Central American nations, according to the annual forecast issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Monday.

The historical average number of tropical storms to develop in a year in the Atlantic basin is 9.7. NOAA research indicates a 50 percent probability of a greater than normal number of storms in 2004.

"NOAA's 2004 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a 50 percent probability of an above-normal season, a 40 percent probability of a near-normal season and only a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season," said Director of the NOAA National Weather Service David Johnson.

The average for storms that develop into hurricanes is 4.7, but NOAA is forecasting six to eight storms developing into hurricanes in 2004.

"The forecast is the result of thousands of hours of work by NOAA and its partners," said Dr. Conrad Lautenbacher, undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

"NOAA investments in high speed computers, improved weather modeling and extensive Earth observation systems enable our scientists and forecasters to gather and synthesize information and begin the process of preparing the public to take action," said Lautenbacher.

Emergency agencies are urging Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coastal residents to prepare for an active hurricane season, starting June 1 and continuing through November 30.

NOAA scientists are predicting neither El Niņo nor La Niņa but neutral conditions through July, but that does not mean a lack of storms.

U.S. officials announced the forecast in Houston, a city located near the coast of the Gulf of Mexico with a history of dangerous storms. They also launched May 16 to 22 as Hurricane Preparedness Week.

"We cannot stop these storms, but we can take steps to limit our vulnerability," said Under Secretary for Homeland Security Michael Brown. "Awareness and preparedness for hurricanes, and even tropical storms, and knowing what to do to mitigate their devastating effects, are our best defense."

"Here in Houston, people know all too well that even without land-falling hurricanes, tropical storms can cause damage and death," cautioned Max Mayfield, director of the NOAA National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. "Preparedness pays off in safety."

"Preparedness is planning in advance by every city, every business, every family and every individual, and then putting those plans into action if a hurricane threatens landfall near you," Mayfield said. "We are here in Houston this year to encourage coastal communities and families to prepare now," Mayfield said.

To learn more about how to prepare for a hurricane, visit the American Red Cross at: http://www.redcross.org/services/disaster/0,1082,0_587_,00.html