Gore: Hollywood, and Bush, Engage in Climate Change Fiction

By J.R. Pegg

WASHINGTON, DC, May 12, 2004 (ENS) - Former Vice President Al Gore says no one should confuse the forthcoming disaster movie "The Day After Tomorrow" with an accurate account of global warming. But neither should they believe Bush administration statements that global warming may not be real, said Gore, who hopes the new Hollywood film will throw the national spotlight on the issue.

It is time the nation got serious about global warming, Gore said, and time people acknowledged that the "Bush/Cheney administration has worked very hard to create a false impression that the scientific community is uncertain about whether this is a serious problem."

"This is dishonest behavior that can lead to an unhealthy debate in our democracy," said the 2000 Democratic presidential nominee. "The consequences [we face] are potentially so devastating that it is absolutely crucial we correct the misimpressions whenever we can."

Gore spoke with reporters Tuesday to announce the start of a grassroots campaign centered around the movie by the liberal advocacy group moveon.org.

The organization will hold a town hall meeting featuring scientists and environmentalists prior to the March 24 New York premiere of the movie and will deploy volunteers to hand out leaflets on the reality of global warming when the film opens nationwide on March 28.

Former Vice President Al Gore addressed global warming in his 1992 book "Earth in the Balance."(Photo courtesy moveon.org)

The film exaggerates the effects and timescale of climate change, according to Harvard University paleoclimatologist Dan Schrag, but the phenomenon is real.

There are things about global warming scientists do not fully understand, Schrag said, but there is no doubt human emissions of greenhouse gases - primarily from the burning of fossil fuels - are the key cause.

The body of evidence supported by the vast majority of climate scientists shows that if human emissions of greenhouse gases are left unchecked, there is a 90 percent probability that surface temperatures on Earth will rise between 1.7 to 4.9 degrees Celsius (3 to 8.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.

Higher temperatures caused by the increased levels of greenhouse gases are expected to result in rising sea levels, melting of the polar ice caps, erratic and severe weather patterns, and a host of other environmental problems that could have far reaching impacts.

Schrag, who joined Gore on Tuesday's teleconference, noted that concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have risen from 280 parts per million (ppm) prior to the start of the industrial revolution to 380 ppm. Carbon dioxide is the most abundant greenhouse gas of the six gases governed by international treaty.

"These levels have not been seen for at least half a million years and we are headed for 500 to 1,000 ppm," he said. "Those levels have not been seen for 30 to 50 million years."

"We are performing an experiment on the planet," Schrag told reporters.

Halting, or even slowing, that experiment will only get harder the longer humanity waits, Schrag added, and is a key reason why action is needed now.

Increased torrential rains are an expected result of climate change. (Photo by C. Errath courtesy FAO)

Many scientists and environmentalists believe the United States cannot just focus on adaptive technologies and must adopt mandatory reductions of greenhouse gases, particularly of carbon dioxide, produced by the combustion of coal, oil and gas for power and transportation.

With about five percent of the world's population, the United States is responsible for more than a quarter of the world's greenhouse gas emissions.

But the Bush administration is against mandatory greenhouse gas emissions reductions and - to the dismay of much of the scientific community - has repeatedly questioned the science behind global warming.

The administration has instead called for more study of climate change and has pushed forward with a voluntary program to cut the nation's greenhouse gas intensity - the ratio of emissions to economic output - by 18 percent.

Bush administration officials contend this plan will allow emissions reductions without harming the U.S. economy.

Critics believe this approach will do little to reduce emissions and note that the United Nations released data last year that found U.S. greenhouse gas emissions rose some 14 percent from 1990 to 2000.

U.S. greenhouse gas emissions are expected to increase another 12 percent by 2012.

There are some signs the administration is concerned about the potential impact of the forthcoming Hollywood movie, which Fox plans to spend some $50 million to promote.

A memo obtained by "The New York Times" detailed a directive by top officials with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that ordered agency scientists not to discuss the movie - a position officials say is no longer in effect.

President George W. Bush favors voluntary measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (Photo by Paul Morse courtesy the White House)

Gore acknowledged that even with the help of the fictional Hollywood movie, it may be difficult to get the public fired up about global warming.

"It does present a challenge to describe the true nature of this issue," Gore said. "But more and more people are feeling it in their gut, they are listening to their parents and grandparents telling them the weather is very different now than it was when they were children."

"Ten of the hottest years in recorded history have been in the last 13 years," Gore said. "We are close to a tipping point where the majority is going to say we have to do something."

For a copy of the leaflet that will be distributed by moveon.org, see here.