UK Academies Investigate Best Science to Battle Pandemic Flu

LONDON, UK, March 1, 2006 (ENS) - A study into the use of science in UK preparations for an influenza pandemic was launched today by the Royal Society, the UK national academy of science, and the Academy of Medical Sciences, an independent academy that deals with public policy issues in medicine and healthcare.

"Pandemic flu could kill millions of people around the world, and we will only be as well prepared as we possibly can in this country if our plans draw on the best advice of the international scientific and medical communities," said the study's chair Sir John Skehel.

One of the world’s leading authorities on the influenza virus, Sir John is a fellow of both academies and director of the National Institute for Medical Research for the Medical Research Council. (Photo courtesy UCL)

Since the start of the most recent outbreak of bird flu in December 2003, 94 people have died from the H5N1 viral strain of the disease in seven countries, and hundreds of millions of chickens and ducks have died or been culled to prevent spread of the disease. While the disease has spread from Asia across Europe as far west as France, no cases in birds or humans have been reported in the UK to date.

The H5N1 virus does not jump easily from birds to humans or spread readily and sustainably among humans. But health officials fear that if the H5N1 virus mutates to a form as contagious as normal influenza, a pandemic could begin. Once a fully contagious virus emerges, its global spread is considered inevitable. Because the virus is new, humans will have no pre-existing immunity.

The UK study will examine the extent to which scientific evidence and advice are being used during policy development and contingency planning in the UK for dealing with the threat of pandemic flu, including that posed by the current global outbreaks of avian influenza caused by the H5N1 subtype of the influenza A virus.

The working group will investigate basic understanding of the diseases and look at how scientific evidence from all sources - academic, public and commercial - is being incorporated into policymaking.

Sir John said, “This study will provide a timely analysis of the underlying science of avian and pandemic influenza. The threat of an influenza pandemic is sufficient for the UK to prepare as well as it possibly can, both in terms of prevention and treatment. This includes understanding the threat through taking account of advances in scientific research carried out in the UK and in other countries.”

The study will investigate policy development and planning for treatment - the use of existing, and the development of, new drugs and vaccines.

The working group will examine the best available science for clinical care - diagnosis, infection control and transmission.

Strategies and preparedness for an outbreak such as modelling and surveillance will also be subject to examination.

UK Health Minister Rosie Winterton Friday announced the award of contracts to Baxter and Chiron for supplies of around 3.5 million doses of H5N1 vaccine. The announcement was made as EU Health Ministers attended a special meeting in Vienna to take stock of recent events and discuss coordination action at European level.

UK Health Minister Rosie Winterton (Photo courtesy UK Government)

A vaccine specific to pandemic flu can only be developed once the new virus has emerged.

Winterton said, "We take the potential threat posed by pandemic flu very seriously and as the WHO and a recent Lords Science and Technology Committee has recognized the UK is among the best prepared countries in the world. But, we are not complacent and recognize that more work needs to be done in order to make the country as fully prepared as possible to meet the threat."

The vaccine is scheduled for delivery in May and October 2006. These vaccine orders are in addition to placing what Winterton called "sleeping contracts" for 120 million doses of pandemic vaccine, which will ensure access to the vaccine once it is developed."

Sir John said the working group that he will chair will identify priorities for future work to inform policymaking. “Our study will examine how scientific evidence can inform policymaking in this area, in both the short and long term, and the extent to which policies in the UK are being based on the best available scientific advice, from here and overseas," he said.

"We will be seeking input from experts and sources in the UK and other countries, and have issued a call today for interested parties to submit evidence to the study," he said. The scientists expect to publish their findings later this year.

The following individuals have confirmed that they will be members of the working group for the study:

• Sir John Skehel FRS FMedSci, National Institute of Medical Research, London
• Professor Neil Ferguson OBE FMedSci, Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London
• Professor Barry Furr OBE FMedSci, Consultant Scientist and formerly Chief Scientist, Astra Zeneca
• Dr. John McCauley, Institute of Animal Health
• Professor Andrew McMichael FRS FMedSci, Weatherall Institute of Molecular Medicine, University of Oxford
• Professor Karl Nicholson, Department of Infection, Immunity and Inflammation, University of Leicester
• Professor Albert Osterhaus, Department of Virology, Erasmus Medical Centre, Rotterdam
• Dr. Geoffrey Schild CBE FMedSci, formerly Director, National Institute for Biological Standards and Control
• Richard Stubbins, Pandemic planning sub-group, UK Vaccine Industry Group, and Sanofi Pasteur MSD