Sea Level Rise By 2109 Could Cost Houston-Galveston Billions

The study used an economic computer model to assess the impact of both conservative and aggressive sea level rise on homes, buildings, industrial and hazardous material sites and water treatments plants in Galveston, Harris and Chambers counties.

"Climate change is happening," said David Yoskowitz, co-author of the report and a professor of socio-economics at the Harte Research Institute, Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi.

"It is not a hypothetical, it is a fact," Yoskowitz said. "Sea level rise is occurring in Galveston Bay as well as around the Gulf of Mexico, this is another fact."

"We need to consider the socio-economic impact of these changes and begin to take long-term sustainable action to get a handle on the rising sea around Galveston in order to protect the region's future," he said.

The Galveston area got a taste of the damage that can result from storm surge last summer when Hurricane Ike made landfall at Galveston Island on September 13, 2008 as a Category 2 hurricane, forcing evacuations and causing major damage to homes, public buildings and infrastructure.

Federal assistance to Texas in its Hurricane Ike recovery efforts hit the $1 billion mark on Tuesday. The federal government spent the assistance funds evacuating residents, operating shelters, repairing roads and bridges, public buildings, parks and recreational areas and removing millions of cubic yards of debris.

In Sabine Pass, Texas, debris and water fill the streets following Hurricane Ike. September 14, 2008. (Photo by Jocelyn Augustino courtesy FEMA)

The new report finds that the impacts of sea level rise include more intense storms, and it includes a scenario with a Hurricane Ike-level storm.

Under the report's aggressive sea level rise estimates, about 93 percent of Galveston County's households would be displaced, which is about 1.3 percent of all Texas households and equivalent to the entire city of Corpus Christi.

"The study's conservative estimates of sea level rise show that 78 percent of current households will be displaced in Galveston County alone," said Amy Hardberger, attorney for EDF. "Galveston residents and their community are already experiencing the effects of climate change and will be even more impacted in the future."

Under both scenarios looking at all three counties, at least 23 public facilities and industrial sites will be affected, according to the study, entitled, "The Socio-Economic Impact of Sea Level Rise in the Galveston Bay Region."

"This region is a hotspot of economic activity including the Port of Houston, an energy complex of over 3,000 firms and a world-class medical system, all which represent 18 percent of Texas employment," Hardberger said.

If Texas ignores climate change, the report warns, small islands will suffer from storm surge and erosion, threatening infrastructure, local resources and facilities that are the livelihood of island communities.

"If we take the very conservative estimate of a .69 meter sea level rise in the next 100 years for Galveston," said Yoskowitz, "an Ike-level storm would be estimated to cause an additional $1.7 billion in damage due to flooding for the three county region surrounding Galveston Bay, given the economic conditions of today."

"To put that figure in perspective, it would equate to the median income for almost 36,000 Texas households," he said.

"The Houston-Galveston area cannot afford to delay simple actions like energy efficiency, which will mitigate carbon emissions and reduce sea level rise, keeping economic drivers intact," said Hardberger.

This report is part of a larger effort by EDF, British Consulate-General Houston and the Texas Climate Initiative, based at the Houston Advanced Research Center, to illustrate the impact that climate change could have on local communities.

"The UK has led the way on hard-headed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change," said Paul Lynch, HM Consul General for the British Consulate–General Houston. "Research like this study on the Houston-Galveston region will help ensure that we develop the right policies to tackle this global problem. We continue to support economic and scientific research to get a better understanding of the risks for different regions and different business sectors."

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