At Least One Major Atlantic Hurricane Forecast This Season

In its initial outlook for the hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center calls for a 50 percent probability of a near-normal season, a 25 percent probability of an above-normal season and a 25 percent probability of a below-normal season.

Still, global weather patterns are imposing a greater uncertainty in the 2009 hurricane season outlook than in recent years, weather forecasters warn.

Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance of having nine to 14 named storms. Of these, four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes in Categories 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

A Category 3 storm means sustained winds of 111-130 mph that will cause extensive damage; a Category 4 storm has sustained winds of 131-155 mph that cause devastating damage; and a Category 5 storm packs sustained winds of greater than 155 mph that cause catastrophic damage.

On September 1, 2008, Hurricane Gustav made landfall on the Gulf Coast in central Louisiana as a Category 2 storm. (Image by Jesse Allen courtesy NASA)

"This outlook is a guide to the overall expected seasonal activity. However, the outlook is not just about the numbers, it's also about taking action," said Gerry Bell, PhD, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

"Prepare for each and every season regardless of the seasonal outlook," advises Bell. "Even a near-normal or below-normal season can produce landfalling hurricanes, and it only takes one landfalling storm to make it a bad season."

"Today, more than 35 million Americans live in regions most threatened by Atlantic hurricanes," said Commerce Secretary Gary Locke, who has jurisdiction over the National Weather Service run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"Timely and accurate warnings of severe weather help save lives and property," said Locke. "Public awareness and public preparedness are the best defenses against a hurricane."

"If you live a hurricane prone area, ensuring your family is prepared is common sense," said Craig Fugate, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA. "We never know where the next hurricane or disaster will strike, but we know that the more we do now to prepare, the better the outcome will be. FEMA will continue to work with our state, local, and federal partners to ensure that we are prepared, but it is also important that all Americans take the necessary steps now - like developing a family disaster plan - before a hurricane or disaster strikes."

This seasonal outlook is shaped by the possibility of competing climate factors, the forecasters say.

More hurricane activity this season could be caused by conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era that began in 1995, which includes more rainfall over West Africa, warmer Atlantic waters and reduced wind shear.

But activity could be reduced if the warm water pattern known as El Nino develops in the equatorial Eastern Pacific this summer or if ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic remain cooler than normal.

Tropical systems acquire a name – the first for 2009 will be Ana – upon reaching tropical storm strength with sustained winds of at least 39 mph.

Tropical storms become hurricanes when winds reach 74 mph, and become major hurricanes when winds increase to 111 mph. An average season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes with two becoming major hurricanes.

NOAA's seasonal hurricane outlook does not project where and when any of these storms may hit. Landfall is dictated by weather patterns in place at the time the storm approaches.

For each storm, NOAA's National Hurricane Center forecasts how these weather patterns affect the storm track, intensity and landfall potential.

"NOAA strives to produce the best possible forecasts to help emergency officials and residents better prepare for an approaching storm," said NOAA administrator Dr. Jane Lubchenco. "I'm pleased to have the administration's support for an additional $13 million in next year's budget request to continue the trend of improving hurricane track and intensity forecasts."

NOAA scientists will continue to monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, just before to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.

NOAA's predictions this year are in accordance with those of closely watched hurricane forecasting team from Colorado State University.

Philip Klotzbach and William Gray said in April that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have about as much activity as the average 1950-2000 season.

"We estimate that 2009 will have about six hurricanes (average is 5.9), 12 named storms (average is 9.6), 55 named storm days (average is 49.1), 25 hurricane days (average is 24.5), two intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and five intense hurricane days (average is 5.0)," they said.

Klotzbach and Gray said they expect current weak La Nina conditions to transition to neutral and perhaps weak El Nino conditions this hurricane season.

Click here for information on developing a family disaster plan in case a hurricane strikes near you.

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