New Institute Would Ease Human Impact of Natural Disasters

BONN, Germany, June 14, 2004 (ENS) - One of every six people on Earth lives today in the potential path of a 100 year flood - roughly one billion people. That number is expected to double by 2050 due to climate change, deforestation, rising sea levels, and population growth in flood-prone lands, warn experts at the United Nations University.

The warning was issued as the UN University prepares to open a new institute in Bonn on Tuesday dedicated to study of the Environment and Human Security.

The new institute aims to bolster the capacity of governments to respond to natural disasters, and establish sustainable land management practices.

“The growing frequency and magnitude of extreme environmental events worldwide has intensified research interest in natural disasters as well as regional vulnerability and response capabilities,” says Dr. Janos Bogardi, founding director of the United Nations University Institute of Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS).

Every summer floods make life miserable for residents of Bangladesh. (Photo courtesy NIEHS)

In addition to natural calamities, the Institute will work on what Bogardi calls "creeping" environmental hazards - climate change, land degradation, degradation of the social environment, population displacement, and changing resource availability and quality - which imperil communities in a more gradual but equally detrimental and multifaceted way.

Floods affect 520 million people worldwide every year, resulting in up to 25,000 annual deaths, extensive homelessness, disease, crop and livestock damage and other serious harm.

Unsustainable land use and other human actions aggravate the situation.

Damage caused by floods and other climatic disasters now costs between $50 to $60 billion per year, much of it in developing countries, and it is often the world’s poorest people who suffer the most.

The cost to the world economy of these disasters is roughly equal to the global development aid provided by all donor countries combined. Figures like these may vault natural disaster issues to the top of the world's political agenda.

Even the most advanced nations are affected. The 2002 floods in Europe killed roughly 100 people, affected 450,000 people and left $20 billion in damages.

The United States, which suffered 50 deaths and $50 billion in damage in the 1993 Mississippi River flood, has averaged 25 flood deaths annually since the 1980s.

But the greatest potential flood hazard is in Asia. Every year for the past two decades, an average of 400 million people have been directly exposed to a flood.

Between 1987 and 1997, 44 percent of all flood disasters worldwide affected Asia, claiming 228,000 lives - roughly 93 percent of all flood-related deaths worldwide. Economic losses in the region in that decade totaled US$136 billion.

In the warmer, wetter world predicted by scientists today, the northern part of the Northern Hemisphere will likely see more storms, while some continental areas might have drier summers and more risk of drought.

Sea levels could rise, fed in part by melt-water from glaciers and ice caps. Along with this, extreme high-water levels may occur with increasing frequency. Higher sea levels could inundate small islands, flood coastal lowlands, and erode sand dunes.

In Chapmansville, West Virginia a flood victim sits on the garage floor of what remains of his flooded house. Two days after the flood, his damaged natural gas tank caught fire destroying the house and three cars. June 26, 2003. (Photo by Leif Skoogfors courtesy FEMA)

Forecasting and warning systems commonly show a cost-benefit ratio of 10 or 15 to one, he says.

Several existing national and international organizations deal with global data collection, analysis, and exchange, and each of them is increasingly linked to all of the others to form a worldwide network.

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), located at the headquarters of the World Meteorological Organization in Geneva, Switzerland, provides information to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and other UN agencies.

GCOS is developing a phased five to 10 year implementation plan for the integrated global observing systems for climate, using a mix of high-quality satellite and in situ measurements, dedicated infrastructure and targeted capacity-building. Public comments are invited, but must be submitted to the GCOS Secretariat no later than July 9, 2004. View the draft plan at: http://www.wmo.ch/web/gcos/gcoshome.html; Email comments to: gcosjpo@wmo.int

The Global Oceans Observing System (GOOS) is a permanent global system for observations, modelling and analysis of marine and ocean variables to support operational ocean services worldwide. Hosted by UNESCO, it too provides information to all the relevant UN agencies.

GOOS will provide accurate descriptions of the present state of the oceans, including living resources; continuous forecasts of the future conditions of the sea for as far ahead as possible; and the basis for forecasts of climate change.

GOOS sponsors events such as "A Century of Discovery: Antarctic Exploration and the Southern Ocean," an international symposium at the Southampton Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK, June 28-30, 2004. Find out more about GOOS at: http://ioc.unesco.org/goos/news.htm

The Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS), hosted by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, links the world's terrestrial research networks together, tackling global environmental issues such as biodiversity, climate change and desertification. Explore its activities at: http://www.fao.org/gtos/Activities.html

A grand overarching system incorporating all these systems and others is in the works. A 10 year implementation plan for a Global Earth Observing System of Systems was presented in April to 43 countries from the G8, Asia, Europe, Africa, and Latin America gathered in Japan for a second summit meeting on this observation effort. Find out more at: http://www.ics-inc.co.jp/eos2e/

There needs to be a shift in the international mindset – from reaction and charity to anticipation and preemption - Dr. Bogardi says. Countries are typically generous with post-disaster relief but less so when it comes to pre-disaster preparedness, spending $100 in relief for every $1 in preparedness.

Recent studies have also shown the cost of constructing disaster resistant buildings adds only two to 12 percent on average to the final costs.

“The thousands of tragic casualties from flooding and Haiti and the Dominican Republic in recent weeks underline the extreme vulnerability of developing countries,” Dr. Bogardi said.

Flood damage along the Choluteca River in Honduras caused by Hurricane Mitch. Over 9,000 deaths and 9,000 missing were attributed to Mitch making it the second most deadly hurricane in history ranking only below a 1780 hurricane in the Lesser Antilles. (Photo Debbie Larson courtesy NOAA)

Scientists say warming sea temperatures may increase the number of cyclones and storm surges reaching shore. Storm surges can be just as lethal as the weather systems that spawn them, “walls of water” 60 to 80 kilometers across and two to five meters high that can pour in from the sea with immense force, washing away everything in their path.

The most massive storm surge in recent times caused 300,000 deaths in the coastal wetlands of Bangladesh in 1970.

Flooding is triggered by such conditions as severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, tropical cyclones and hurricanes, the El Niño effect, monsoons, dam breaks, ice jams or melting snow.

These conditions annually cause thousands of deaths through drowning in vehicles and homes, accidents while walking or driving around water, electrocution, roof collapses, lightning strikes and heart attacks, and water-borne diseases.

“In view of the ever increasing flood disasters and other threats to human security, there is an urgent need to reassess how we respond and prevent the potential of catastrophic loss of life and economic damage from natural disasters,” says UN Under Secretary-General Hans van Ginkel, Rector of the United Nations University.

“The concept of human security has evolved in recent years. Human security as now defined puts the individual at the center of debate, analysis and policy. It is the individual who is paramount; government is an instrument of the people to protect human life and enhance human welfare,” he says.

“Applying this new concept to its work, the UNU-EHS program will research ways of mitigating environmental threats, shedding new light on the interrelationships between the social, political, economic, technical, and natural factors involved,” van Ginkel says.

“Instead of starting with the focus on natural hazards and their quantification," Dr. Bogardi says, "the assessment and ranking of the vulnerability of affected groups should serve as the starting point in defining priorities and remedial interventions.”