Kyoto Protocol Marks First Anniversary With Hope

BONN, Germany, February 16, 2006 (ENS) - Achievement of the Kyoto Protocol limits on greenhouse gas emissions are within reach of all the treaty's signatories, a senior United Nations official said today on the one year anniversary of the protocol’s entry into force.

The Kyoto Protocol took effect on February 16, 2005, 90 days after it was ratified by the Russian Parliament. Russia was the last industrialized country to join the protocol, leaving only the United States and Australia among industrialized countries on the outside.

Richard Kinley, acting head of the UN Climate Change Secretariat in Bonn, said that the 34 industrialized countries and the European Union governed by the protocol can reach the targeted cut in greenhouse gas emissions by at least five percent below 1990 levels. This target must be met between 2008 and 2012, the protocol's first commitment period.

Richard Kinley is acting head of the UN Climate Change Secretariat. He has served as Secretary of the Conference of the Parties since 1996 and led the Secretariat support for the negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol. (Photo courtesy Earth Negotiations Bulletin)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which brings together 2,500 of the world's climate experts, projected in its Third Assessment Report in 2001 that the globally averaged surface temperature will increase by between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius from 1990 to 2100 under a business-as-usual scenario.

This projected change is larger than any climate change experienced over the last 10,000 years. The rise in temperature is linked with the emission of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels and other human activities.

As global temperatures rise, sea levels also will rise by between nine and 88 centimeters over the same period, the IPCC projects.

If nothing is done to prevent or limit these changes, they will have major environmental, economic and social consequences.

These consequences will include geographic shifts in the occurrence of different species and/or the extinction of species. Changes in rainfall patterns will put pressure on water resources in many regions, which will in turn affect both drinking water supplies and irrigation.

Extreme weather events - storms, floods, droughts and heat waves - will become more frequent and cause human suffering and economic damage.

Burning savanna grasslands in South Africa. Greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and solid carbon soot particulates are components of the emissions. (Photo courtesy NASA)

Carbon dioxide is the most prevalent and best known of the greenhouse gases governed by the Kyoto Protocol, but five other gases are also covered by the pact - methane, nitrous oxide, hydro fluorocarbons, per fluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride.

Once emitted into the atmosphere, these gases form a blanket around the planet, trapping the Sun's heat close to the surface.

Reports submitted by industrialized countries to the UN Climate Change Secretariat at the beginning of this year show the progress being made in setting policies and enacting legislation and regulatory frameworks to accomplish the Kyoto emissions reduction targets.

New policies put in place by the 15 countries that were European Union members when the Kyoto treaty was adopted in 1997 have cut emissions by 1.7 percent compared to 1990 levels.

This amount is equal to the annual greenhouse gas emissions of Denmark or Bulgaria, the Secretariat said.

While expressing satisfaction at the progress to date, Kinley called on the dozens of industrialized nations that have ratified the protocol to sustain their momentum and intensify their efforts as they move toward the legally binding targets for cutting emissions by 2012.

“Setting these actions in motion will be the success of Kyoto, but more is needed,” said Kinley, adding that the protocol’s implementation will drive the technology innovation needed to further reduce emissions.

Germany's Deuben coal-fired power plant (Photo courtesy Mibrag)

At a UN climate conference held in Montreal in November 2005, officials finalized the protocol's rule book.

The rule book detailed three market-based mechanisms for reducing emissions, known as the Kyoto flexible mechanisms - emissions trading between governments with Kyoto targets, the Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation.

A Joint Implementation Supervisory Board was created to oversee the Kyoto mechanism that allows developed countries to invest in clean energy projects in central and eastern European transition economies and others. This Joint Implementation mechanism lets the industralized countries earn carbon allowances which they can use to meet their emission reduction commitments.

The Clean Development Mechanism allows the Kyoto industrialized countries to invest in sustainable development projects in developing countries, thereby earning carbon allowances.

Christine Zumkeller, coordinator of the Mechanisms Programme, said the Clean Development Mechanism could generate more than 700 million metric tons of emission reductions by the end of 2012.

“This is almost as much as the annual greenhouse gas emissions of Canada,” she said.

Traffic congestion on England's A1 Gateshead Western Bypass. Vehicles fueled by gasoline and diesel emit the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. (Photo courtesy FreeFoto)

The effects of climate change are now unmistakable in Europe. Glaciers in eight of Europe's nine glacial regions are in retreat, and are at their lowest levels for 5,000 years.

Roughly two out of every three catastrophic events since 1980 have been directly attributable to floods, storms, droughts or heat waves. The average number of these weather and climate related disasters per year doubled over the 1990s compared with the previous decade.

The European Commission is leading the push to move beyond current Kyoto commitments towards deeper emissions cuts after the first commitment period expires in 2012.

In a statement to mark the protocol's first anniversary, EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas said, "The battle against climate change is winnable but with the Earth’s temperature continuing to warm rapidly – NASA says 2005 was the hottest year on record – farther-reaching measures will be needed after the Kyoto targets expire in 2012."

In Montreal, the Kyoto Protocol Parties agreed to start discussing, without delay, new emission targets for industrialized countries, for the years after 2012. Those talks will begin in May at a meeting in Bonn.

In parallel, the 189 UNFCCC Parties, including those that are outside Kyoto such as the United States, agreed to conduct, over the next two years, a dialogue on long-term cooperative action against climate change. Dimas said these discussions "should lead to a further international framework to tackle climate change."

The next formal talks for UNFCCC Parties are set for November with Canada at the helm.

Canada's new Environment Minister Rona Ambrose will preside over the next UNFCCC Conference of Parties. (Photo courtesy Government of Canada)

"I am honored that the Prime Minister has nominated me to this prestigious post," said Ambrose. "The president of the Conference of Parties is an important opportunity for Canada to provide leadership in the global dialogue on environmental issues."

The UNFCCC 12th Conference of Parties (COP) and the Kyoto Protocol COP 2 will take place from November 6-17, 2006. Kenya has offered to host these meetings, although the location is still to be confirmed. Canada will retain the presidency until a new president is elected in November.

WWF, the global conservation organization, said that as the protocol reaches its first anniversary, higher oil prices are a clear opportunity for governments to intensify moves towards cleaner energy alternatives.

“Don’t wait around for higher oil prices or even more worries about energy security, act now,” urged Jennifer Morgan, director of WWF’s Climate Change Programme. “The Kyoto Protocol may be one year old, but we are still far from winning the fight against global warming.”

“The Montreal climate conference has set the direction for reducing climate pollution, planning for strong cuts in emissions,” said Morgan. “Now we must make sure that governments and industry move forward fast enough and with the strength required to backup their promises. Time is running out to avoid the worst impacts.”

WWF urges that new energy sources such as wind, geothermal, solar and biomass should be at the center of a global effort, as well as pushing energy efficiency to the maximum.

The G8 Summit in St. Petersburg this summer will also discuss energy security. Governments are expected to contribute strategies and incentives to fuel the switch to clean energy and secure energy efficiency measures.