Natural Disasters Deadlier in Poor Countries

WASHINGTON, DC, February 4, 2004 (ENS) - Earthquake, cyclone, flood, or drought - whatever the type of disaster that strikes - people in wealthy countries are far less likely to die than people in poor countries, according to a new risk index developed by the United Nations. It shows that populations in wealthy countries are 15 percent of those exposed to natural disasters, but only 1.8 percent of those who are killed.

The disaster risk index presented by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) as part of a new report "Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge for Development," is a new method for measuring global disaster risk.

Ninety-four percent of natural disaster deaths are caused by tropical cyclones, floods, earthquakes and drought, the UNDP. The index provides an innovative link between physical exposure levels and relative vulnerability for more than 200 countries and territories in the years from 1980 to 2000.

The figures were determined by comparing the number of people exposed to disasters in relation to population and then mapping the relationship in a geographical information system.

Lt. Jeff Bledsoe provides medical attention to a Turkish girl in a U.S. Navy medical tent in Izmit, Turkey. The child was injured in the earthquake that hit Western Turkey in the early morning hours of August 17, 1999. (Photo courtesy DOD)

Some 130 million people are exposed to earthquakes each year. Highly vulnerable were countries such as Iran, Afghanistan and India, as Armenia, which is indexed highest on the relative vulnerability list. Other medium development countries with large urban populations such as Turkey and Russia were also found to have high levels of vulnerability.

Analysis using the index shows that Iranians are more than 1,000 times more vulnerable to earthquakes than Americans.

In Iran, an average of 1,074 people were killed each year in earthquakes between 1980 and 2000, for every one million inhabitants exposed.

By comparison in the United States, only 0.97 people were killed each year for every one million people exposed to earthquakes.

The index compared countries' risk levels with 26 social, economic and ecological indicators in order to identify development processes that were contributing to high vulnerability.

Earthquake risk and rapid urban growth are closely related, the UNDP says. As cities grow rapidly, there is often a lack of application of appropriate building standards or land use planning, and the deterioration of older densely packed inner city areas, the UNDP says, all factors that increase earthquake risk.

Water shortages in the East African country of Eritrea are having a devastating impact on livestock as well as people. An estimated one third of Eritrea’s livestock are at risk because of the lack of fresh water and fodder. (Photo by Brenda Barton courtesy WFP)

Eritrea’s drought has turned much of the landscape into a dustbowl. With the water table dropping ever lower and riverbeds & wells drying up, water shortages are posing a serious threat to survival. The United Nations World Food Programme estimates that 2.3 million Eritreans have been hit by the drought, 70 percent of the total population.

Drought leads to famine more quickly in connection with armed conflict, internal population displacement, HIV/AIDS, poor governance and economic crisis, the UNDP study found.

Floods endanger some 196 million people in more than 90 countries annually. "High vulnerability was identified in a wide range of countries and is likely to be aggravated by global climate change," the UN agency warns.

Venezuela tops the list for floods, with Somalia, Morocco, and Bhutan not far behind. Poverty, low local density of population, and high physical exposure were associated with high risk of floods.

Germany, by comparison, which suffered historic flood levels in 2002 has very low relative human vulnerability to floods. Only 0.25 people were killed each year per one million exposed in Germany, compared with 67 in Mozambique in the years from 1980 to 2000.

Poverty, and sparsely populated rural areas where disaster preparedness and early warning are non-existent and where health coverage is usually weak or not easily accessible, are the indicators of vulnerability for flooding, the index shows. In these areas, people are not able to evacuate easily and are more vulnerable to death from flood related diseases.

Hurricane Marilyn damaged islands in the Caribbean in September 1995. (Photo courtesy NOAA)

Other countries with large populations on coastal plains were found to be highly vulnerable such as Bangladesh and Vietnam.

Countries with similar exposure to cyclones were found to have different levels of relative vulnerability. In Haiti, 13 people per million inhabitants exposed were killed each year compared with 0.16 in Cuba during the 1980 to 2000 time period.

Cyclone risk is identified with countries that have large rural populations and those with low ranking on the Human Development Index.

Rural housing is less resistant to high winds than urban housing, and, the UNDP says, emergency services, disaster preparedness and early warning are usually weaker or non-existent in rural areas of poorer countries.