World Meteorologists Rank 2004 Fourth Warmest Year on Record

GENEVA, Switzerland, December 16, 2004 (ENS) - Global warming made the year just past likely to go down in history as the fourth warmest on record, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Wednesday in its annual statement on the status of the global climate. The year 1998 remains the warmest ever.

The last 10 years - 1995-2004 - with the exception of 1996, are among the warmest 10 years on record.

The WMO’s global temperature analyses are based on two different goverment datasets - one American and one British. Both indicate that 2004 is likely to be the fourth warmest year globally since instrumental recordkeeping began in 1861.

Water shortages and drought are a perennial problem in many parts of Eritrea on the Horn of Africa near the Red Sea. (Photo by Eddy Posthuma de Boer courtesy International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent (IFRC)

The data are collected and distributed on a continuing basis by the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of WMO's 187 member states and territories.

The global mean surface temperature in 2004 is expected to be +0.44 degrees Celsius above the 1961-1990 annual average - a benchmark value for the WMO which stands at 14 degrees C (57.2 degrees Fahrenheit).

This value of 0.44 degrees C places 2004 as the fourth warmest year in the temperature record since 1861 just behind 2003 (+0.49 degrees C).

Still, 1998 remains the warmest year, when surface temperatures averaged +0.54 degrees C above the same 30 year mean.

One unmistakable indication of the warming global climate is the melting Arctic ice cap. Sea ice extent in the Arctic remains well below the long term average, the WMO said. In September 2004, it was about 13 percent less than the 1973-2003 average. Satellite information suggests a general decline in Arctic sea ice extent of about eight percent over that same two and half decade period.

Melting ice floes in the northern Bering Sea (Photo by Richard Behn courtesy NOAA)

The Montreal Protocol has been imposing limits on the release of these chemicals since 1987. One of the most widely accepted and adhered to protocols, its positive effect on the ozone hole was demonstrated this year.

Globally, the land-surface air temperature anomaly for October 2004 was the warmest on record for a month of October.

High temperatures across much of the land masses of central Asia, China, Alaska and western parts of the United States, as well as across major portions of the North Atlantic Ocean, contributed to the high global mean surface temperature ranking, the WMO said

Over the 20th century, the WMO says, the global surface temperature increased by more than 0.6 degrees C (1.08 degrees F), but the rate of change for the period since 1976 is about three times that for the past 100 years as a whole.

In the northern hemisphere, the 1990s were the warmest decade with an average of 0.38 degrees C (.6 degrees F).

But, the intergovernmental weather agency said, the surface temperatures averaged over the most recent five year period 2000-2004 were much higher - 0.58 degrees C (1.044 degrees F).

The global weather pattern showed strong regional temperature differences with extreme temperatures at both ends of the spectrum.

During June and July, heat waves with near-record temperatures affected southern Spain, Portugal, and Romania, with maximum temperatures reaching 40 degrees C, (104 degrees Fahrenheit)

In Japan, extreme hot conditions persisted during the summer with recordbreaking maximum temperatures.

The average temperature between February 10 and February 17, 2004, for much of southeastern Australia soared at least six degrees Celsius (10.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal temperatures for this time of year. (Satellite image courtesy NASA)

A prolonged severe heatwave across northern parts of India during the last week of March caused more than 100 fatalities.

In July, abnormally cold conditions in the high altitude areas of the Andes in southern Peru reportedly killed 92 people.

Cold weather since late December 2003 was blamed for as many as 600 deaths across South Asia.

During January 2004, maximum and minimum temperatures were below normal by 6 to 10°C across northern India and Bangladesh.

Moderate to severe drought conditions continued in some areas of the western United States for the fifth year in a row. Some relief was experienced during September and October, though long-term drought remains entrenched across much of the region. Due to above-normal summer temperatures and dry conditions, a record area was burned by wildfires in Alaska.

In southern China, dry conditions persisted from August to October, resulting in the worst drought there in the last 54 years.

In Pakistan, poor rains in July and August aggravated the long-term drought conditions. In Afghanistan, drought conditions that had plagued the country for the past four years continued in 2004 due to poor precipitation in the March-April season.

The March-May rainy season was shorter and drier than normal across parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, resulting in a continuation of multi-season drought in this region.

While drought parched these regions, there was record rainfall and flooding in many other areas.

Precipitation in 2004 was above average for the globe and 2004 was the wettest year since 2000, the WMO said. Wetter than average conditions prevailed in the southern and eastern United States, eastern Europe and parts of western Asia, Bangladesh, Japan and coastal Brazil.

The Asian summer monsoon during June-September brought heavy rain and flooding to parts of northern India, Nepal and Bangladesh, leaving millions stranded. Throughout India, Nepal and Bangladesh, some 1,800 deaths were blamed on flooding brought by heavy monsoon rains.

In October, two typhoons and active frontal systems brought record-breaking heavy rainfall to Japan. Tokyo received a total amount of 780 mm precipitation in October, which is the largest monthly amount on record since 1876.

Mudslides and floods due to heavy rains across areas of Brazil during January and early February left tens of thousands of people homeless and resulted in 161 deaths. In January, Peru and Bolivia experienced hailstorms, heavy rainfall and flooding, which killed at least 50 people.

Heavy rains in late May 2004 caused devastating floods across southern Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Water supplies were contaminated by human and animal corpses, prompting a major effort by the Haitian Red Cross to promote greater awareness of sanitation and water-borne diseases. (Photo by Marko Kokic courtesy IFRC)

In Haiti, torrential rainfall due to the passage of Hurricane Jeanne produced disastrous flooding that claimed some 3,000 lives. This disaster came in the wake of flooding and landslides that affected Haiti and the Dominican Republic in late May 2004, in which more than 2,000 people were killed and several thousand others were affected.

In the second half of November and beginning of December, three tropical storms and a tropical depression passed over southern and central parts of the Philippines, drenching the islands with several days of torrential rainfall and triggering catastrophic flash floods and landslides, which killed, according to media reports, more than 1,100 people.

Heavy rains from mid-January to March in areas of Angola produced flooding along the river system, which flows into neighboring Zambia, Botswana and Namibia. Extensive flooding along the Zambezi River, the worst flooding since 1958, threatened more than 20,000 people in northeastern Namibia and caused extensive damage to crops.

In Australia, parts of Tasmania, Queensland and New South Wales received unusually heavy rainfall in mid-January, which produced flooding and damage. Parts of the Northern Territory received the wettest rainy season on record. A series of strong storms during February produced heavy rainfall and damaging floods in southern parts of New Zealand’s North Island.

There were an above average number of hurricanes and deadly typhoons in 2004, the weather agency said.

During the Atlantic hurricane season, 15 named tropical storms developed - the average is around ten. During August, eight tropical storms formed, which is a record for the most named storms for any month of August. Since 1995, there has been a marked increase in the annual number of tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin.

Hurricane Charley was the strongest and most destructive hurricane to strike the United States since Andrew in 1992. In all, nine named storms hit the United States, causing extensive damage estimated at more than US$43 billion.

In the South Atlantic Ocean, sea-surface and atmospheric conditions do not favor the formation of hurricanes, the WMO said. Even so, during March 2004, the first documented hurricane since geostationary satellite records began in 1966 developed. Named Catarina, it made landfall along the southern coast of Brazil on March 28, causing great damage to property and some loss of life.

At the same time, in the eastern North Pacific, activity was slightly depressed. Only 12 named storms developed during the year, compared to the average of 16.4 such storms.

More extensive, updated information will be available in the annual WMO statement on the status of the Global Climate in 2004, to be published in early March 2005.

{The front page photo is shown courtesy of the United Nations Environment Programme Global Climate Change and Biodiversity report..}