2003 Third Warmest Year on Record

GENEVA, Switzerland, December 17, 2003 (ENS) - The year 2003 is expected to go down in history as the third warmest on record, according to data provided to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) by weather scientists in its 185 member countries and territories. The warmest year ever was 1998, and the second warmest was 2002, the WMO says.

Late 20th century warmth is unprecedented for at least the past millennium, the agency said, adding that in the Northern Hemisphere, the 1990s were the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year in the past 1,000 years.

Summer heat waves scorched much of Europe, and there were more hurricanes, typhoons and tropical cyclones than normal, the WMO said in its preliminary assessment based on the first 11 months of the year.

The Antarctic ozone hole was unusually large in 2003, and at the other pole, the extent of Arctic sea ice was "low," the WMO said, consistent with new analyses of satellite data, which show that the Arctic region warmed "significantly" in the 1990s compared to the 1980s.

Meteorologist Professor Godwin Obasi of Nigeria has been secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization since 1984. (Photo courtesy IISD/ENB-Leila Mead)

Obasi said the urgency arises from "the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the continued rise in globally averaged surface temperatures, and a growing number of extreme weather and climate events, some of which are of unprecedented intensity."

At the scientific level, Obasi called for strengthening of existing infrastructure and new initiatives for enhanced monitoring and research that will reduce uncertainties in climate prediction.

Adaptation measures should be undertaken to assist local communities to cope with and adapt to the impacts of climate change," the WMO chief said.

The Numbers

By the time the year ends and all data is in, the global surface temperature for 2003 is expected to be documented as +0.45 degrees Celsius (+0.81 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1961-90 annual average.

The warmest year on record remains 1998, when the global surface temperature hit +0.55°C (+0.99°F) above the 1961-90 annual average. The second warmest year was 2002, when the global surface temperature was +0.48°C (+0.864°F) above the 1961-90 baseline.

To arrive at these figures, the data are gathered from a network of weather stations on land, ships and buoys. The data are collected and disseminated on a continuing basis by the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the WMO member countries.

WMO’s global temperature analyses are based on data sets maintained by the Hadley Centre of the Meteorological Office, UK, and the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK, as well as on another authoritative global surface temperature data set maintained by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Both datasets indicate that 2003 will likely be the third warmest year globally, the WMO said Tuesday. More extensive, updated information will be made available in the annual WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 2003, to be published in early March 2004.

Overall, the global surface temperature has increased since the beginning of the instrumental record in 1861, said the WMO, adding that over the 20th century the increase was greater than 0.6°C (1.08°F).

"The rate of change for the period since 1976 is roughly three times that for the past 100 years as a whole," the WMO said.

The Effects

Europe:
Europe experienced unprecedented heat during June, July and August and temperatures across parts of Europe were consistently 5°C (9°F) warmer than average for several months. Nationwide seasonal temperatures were warmest on record in Germany, Switzerland, France and Spain.

Fires in the summer of 2003 scorched forests near resort areas on the Mediterranean coast. (Photo courtesy European Space Agency)

Spain, Portugal, France and countries in Central and Eastern Europe were blackened by intense forest fires.

In the European Alps, the average thickness loss of glaciers reached about three meters water equivalent, which was nearly twice as much as during the previous record year 1998 (1.6 meters), the WMO said.

The Mediterranean and Near East region had the warmest land and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly on record for June and July. The Northern Hemisphere had the warmest land and SST anomaly on record for September and October.

During the Northern Hemisphere winter, large areas in central and Eastern Europe saw episodes of very cold temperatures. For the third year in a row Mongolia experienced a cycle of dry summer/cold winter with devastating effects on livestock.

Asia:
In contrast to the summer warmth over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere, extremely low temperatures with wet conditions persisted from northern China to Japan during July and August.

In India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, this year’s harsh pre-monsoon heat wave in May hit an unprecedented high of 49°C (120°F). At least 1,500 people died in India due to the hot weather.

Extremely low temperatures observed in northern India in January resulted in more than 1,900 deaths, and in neighboring Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh, the combination of cold weather and persistent fog claimed hundreds of lives in January, said the WMO.

Near record summer temperatures were documented in China and parts of Russia. Conditions during the Asian summer monsoon, from June to September, were about average.

Africa:
In Africa, drought conditions continued to affect much of Botswana, Zimbabwe, parts of South Africa and Mozambique in early 2003.

Zimbabwe Red Cross Provincial Program Officer Tambudzai Tinonetsana distributes precious maize seed at a clinic. (Photo courtesy IFRC)

In Africa, heavy seasonal rains in April led to flooding in Kenya and southern parts of Ethiopia and Somalia, with similar conditions in western Eritrea and northeast Sudan in July. Some areas experienced the wettest conditions in 70 years.

On a positive note, rain and snowfall brought relief from drought conditions in Afghanistan that had built up over the past four years. Improved rainfall helped fill water reservoirs that had been dry for years.

North America:
Near year’s end, moderate to extreme drought affected 37 percent of the Lower 48 United States, in some areas for the fourth or fifth year in a row, leading to water shortage. The most costly wildfires on record in the USA occurred in Southern California in late October.

This summer, near record temperatures were recorded in Canada and the United States, including Hawaii and Alaska.

British Columbia, Canada experienced the most costly wildfires ever during this summer. Then heavy autumn rainfall ended the drought, but brought flooding to the area.

In November, rainfall records were set in portions of coastal British Columbia as up to 470 mm (18.5 inches) of rain in a six day period caused the worst flooding in a century.

The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent for 2003 was the second greatest on record. Snowstorms in February brought numerous new 24 hour snowfall and storm total records to the eastern United States, resulting in a number of weather related deaths.

South America:
In Brazil, torrential rains in January brought flooding to Rio de Janeiro, triggering deadly mudslides. The Argentine province of Santa Fe experienced serious flooding in late April/early May, leading to a drop in agricultural production and adverse effects on water quality.

During the austral winter, a cold wave in the Peruvian highlands resulted in more than 200 deaths as temperatures in areas above 4,000 meters (13,000 feet) dropped below –20°C (-4°F) in July.

Oceania:
The year began with a moderate El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which faded to neutral conditions by April. The effects of El Niño included drier than normal conditions over Australia and extremely dry conditions in southern parts of Africa.

Dry conditions and record warmth in Australia promoted wildfires that devastated parts of the southeast. A massive complex of bushfires, which burned for 59 days during January and February, destroyed over 3 million hectares. Despite near normal rainfall, the impacts of the drought remained for much of 2003.

Hurricanes, Typhoons and Cyclones

This year’s Atlantic hurricane season saw the development of 16 named storms, well above the 1944-96 average of 9.8, but consistent with a marked increase in the annual number of tropical systems since the mid-1990s.

Seven of the named storms were classified as hurricanes and three of those were classed as major.

Hurricane Isabel hit North Carolina as one of the strongest on record. Hurricane Juan was the worst hurricane to hit Halifax, Nova Scotia in modern times, and Hurricane Fabian was the most destructive hurricane to hit Bermuda in more than 75 years.

In the Eastern Pacific, the hurricane season began slowly, though 16 named storms had developed by the beginning of December. This value is slightly greater than in previous years, but close to the 1966-1996 average of 16.4.

Typhoon Maemi, packing sustained winds of 135 miles per hour was the strongest to hit South Korea since records began. (Photo courtesy Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC)

For the Northwest Pacific, activity was slightly depressed in 2003 with only 20 named storms observed in the western North Pacific, which is below the 1971 to 2000 average of 25.4. Twelve of them reached typhoon intensity.

Typhoon Maemi passed over southern Japan and made landfall on the Korean Peninsula on September 12, resulting in more than 130 deaths, leaving some 25,000 people homeless and causing an estimated US$4.1 billion in property damage.

For the South West Indian Ocean basin, the cyclone season was active with an above normal number of named storms over the entire basin.

In Sri Lanka, heavy rainfalls in May from Tropical Cyclone 01B worsened already wet conditions, resulting in flooding and landslides and killing at least 250 people. The flooding is considered the worst to affect the region in 50 years.