UN Says Global Warming Kills 150,000 a Year

MILAN, Italy, December 12, 2003 (ENS) - Climate change is killing some 150,000 people each year and the death toll will continue to rise absent strong action to mitigate global warming, according to a new report from the United Nations.

The report came near the end of a 12 day conference on climate change where negotiators finalized details of the Kyoto Protocol, but acknowledged that the international accord on global warming stands on the brink of collapse.

Failure to act on the global warming could cause severe human suffering, finds the report by the World Health Organization and other UN agencies. It estimates that by 2030 climate change could cause some 300,000 deaths each year.

"There is growing evidence that changes in the global climate will have profound effects on the health and well being of citizens in countries throughout the world," said Dr Kerstin Leitner, WHO assistant director-general for Sustainable Development and Healthy Environments.

The report, "Climate Change and Human Health - Risks and Responses" was released at the 9th Session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) in Milan.

The Milan meeting ended today with a few signs of progress - negotiators moved forward with a plan to set worldwide emissions standards for transportation, agreed to set up a global warming fund for poor nations and finalized rules for the use of forest carbon sequestration projects under the Kyoto Protocol.

More extreme weather patterns caused by climate change will have increasingly negative impact on communities around the world, the UN says. (Photo by P. Cenini courtesy FAO )

The 1997 accord will not come into effect unless it is ratified by 55 nations, including industrialized countries representing at least 55 percent of that group's 1990 carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It aims to curb greenhouse gas emissions by some five percent below 1990 levels.

Ratification of the treaty will not happen without the commitment of either the United States, which accounted for 36.1 percent of the 1990 CO2 total or Russia, which was responsible for 17.4 percent of the 1990 figure.

The Bush administration refuses to sign the accord, citing the economic impact of the mandatory cuts and doubts about the science behind global warming. This leaves the fate of the treaty in the hands of Russia and mixed signals from Russian officials during the conference have cast doubts over whether it will ratify the treaty.

The United States has tried to use this confusion to focus the international community on scientific research and investment into new technologies - instead of mandatory emissions cuts. But this policy was rejected by a majority of the 188 parties to the convention.

The Bush administration's position on climate change has brought politics to the forefront of the international effort to combat global warming, according to Jennifer Morgan, director of the WWF Climate Change Program.

UNFCCC Executive Secretary Joke Waller-Hunter said that although Kyoto is not yet in force, it is encouraging that momentum for action has not slowed down. (Photo courtesy IISD/ENB-Leila Mead)

The new WHO report outlines a stark future if humanity does not begin to cut C02 and other greenhouse gas emissions.

It examines how weather, air pollution, and water and food contamination affect the way diseases emerge, and describes the context and process of global climate change, its actual or likely impacts on health, and how human societies and their governments should respond, with particular focus on the health sector.

Many of the deaths detailed by the new study are the result of changing weather patterns many believe are already occurring due to climate change.

The 1990s was the hottest decade on record and the upward trend in the world's temperature continues, WHO says, and the European heatwave this past summer killed an estimated 20,000 people.

Heat increases bacterial contamination of food, WHO scientists explained, and new patterns of rainfall will have a major impact on health by increasing the spread of some infectious diseases.

When rainfall rises above normal levels, it can collect and stagnate, and the still water provides additional breeding grounds for mosquitoes and other vectors which transmit diseases such as malaria and dengue fever.

The organization estimates that climate change is responsible for 2.4 per cent of all cases of diarrhoea worldwide and for two percent of all cases of malaria, according to the most recent figures available.

"We must better understand the potential health effects particularly for those who are most vulnerable, so that we can better manage the risks," she added.

The new report includes guidelines designed to help governments and other organizations monitor and assess the impact of climate change and take action to prevent those effects.

Increased torrential rains are an expected result of climate change. (Photo by C. Errath courtesy FAO)

Scientists involved with the study acknowledge that the 150,000 deaths due to climate change is a tiny figure in the grand scheme of things - some 1.5 million die each year from smoking.

But individuals can chose not to smoke - they have no means of avoiding the impacts of climate change. Leitner says the study is further evidence that it is time for action.

"Until now, most of the work being done on climate change was intended to bring results in 10, 20 or 50 years' time," Leitner said. "But we need to institute actions which will protect people's lives now."

Some critics say the new study oversimplifies the spread of mosquito borne illnesses - Paul Reiter, a specialist in such diseases at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, called the report "naïve to attempt to predict the effects of 'global warming' on malaria on the mere basis of temperature."

But for environmentalists the report is more evidence that climate change is already having harmful effects and there is growing frustration over the inability of the international community to act.

Climate change is real and happening, said Steve Sawyer, political director of Greenpeace International, and the failure of nations like the United States, Australia and Russia to take action is "immoral, illegal, and a declaration of war on future generations and the poor in the developing world."